Demand Planning and Forecasting Workshop (2 days / 14 hrs)
Overview
The first day of this demand planning course is close in content
to the 1 day Introduction to Sales Forecasting, giving a
sound background to the various approaches to demand forecasting and
a selection of the more common
methods. In the second day
some additional
forecasting methods are introduced, together with guidance on the
selection and calibration of forecasting models. Methods for
forecast accuracy measurement are discussed. The course also covers
stock policy, calculation of safety stocks and role of demand planning
within a typical S&OP process.
Course level:
Basic or Intermediate
Price:
Please request a fixed price quotation by email or
through the
form here, giving the number
of delegates. Courses are currently delivered online only , usually
through the Zoom platform, and are hosted throughout by the expert trainer
/ consultant.
Course Dates:
Courses are arranged for individual companies in
order that they can be tailored to give the most relevant content and
best experience for the delegates. Dates are simply agreed by
Forecast Solutions and the participating company. Bookings are a
provisional only until payment for the course has been received.
Who should attend:
The two day workshop is suitable for those looking
to gain an in-depth understanding of processes as well as methods for
demand planning and sales forecasting. It is attended by people from
a wide range of job roles in areas such as demand planning, marketing,
operations, supply chain and purchasing. Delegates come from many
different industry sectors spanning consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, high
tech, financial sevices and industrial sectors.
Learning Outcomes:
-
Knowledge of a wide range of forecasting
methods for demand forecasting over the short term and medium term
horizons.
-
Understanding of how a suitable forecasting
model can be chosen and it's parameters calibrated.
-
Appreciation of how the company can manage the
uncertainty of demand and prepare to deal with abnormal demand.
-
Sufficient insight to support consideration of potential improvements to the
company's existing methods and procedures.
Typical Course Content:
-
The role of demand planning in this and other
organisations. Alternative approaches to demand forecasting
including subjective methods, causal analysis and time series
projection.
-
The importance of a good seasonal analysis.
Some simple methods for the calculation of seasonal indices in
stationary and non-stationary data. Checking the validity of the
seasonal pattern.
-
Understanding the key factors that drive the
business. The use of causal analysis to investigate and quantify
the effect on demand of causal factors such as price, weather and
economic indices.
-
Curve fitting as a way of projecting the sales
trend. This covers straight line fitting plus a few other basic
methods that are available in Excel. Choosing between different
types of curve and measuring goodness of fit.
-
Explanation and illustration of the use of
moving averages in forecasting, including situations with intermittent
sales.
-
Example of simple exponential smoothing and
related methods available to include a linear trend in the projection.
-
Explanation of further developments in
exponential smoothing including the new Forecast Sheet tool in Excel.
-
Practical approaches to the difficult issues
around forecasting for new products and new business. Dealing
with product succession.
-
If promotions are a feature in the company's
business, coverage of some practical methods for dealing with
promotions.
The need to cleanse historical data of promotions prior to statistical
forecasting.
-
The purpose of forecast accuracy measurement
and the most effective measures to use. A worked example
illustrating the usual methods.
-
Explanation of some further forecasting
methods and how a suitable forecasting model can be chosen from the
wide range of options available.
-
Setting inventory policy in terms of the
timing and size of stock replenishment orders. Calculation of
safety stocks for fast moving and slow moving items. Forecasting
and planning for intermittent demand.
-
Calculation of a stock development plan in
conditions of infinite supply or constrained supply. Management
of abnormal demand.
-
Forecasting in the context of a sales and
operations planning process. Considerations around forecasting
for the medium term as opposed to short term horizon.
-
If the company operates in a consumer goods
market, the availability of EPOS data and its
potential use in forecasting and planning.
-
The six steps in a typical sales forecasting
process and consideration of best practice in forecasting process for
the specific company.
Reconciling alternative versions of the forecast.
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Request a Quotation
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Alternative forecasting courses
For those looking for a more basic introduction there is the 1 day
Introduction to Sales Forecasting course and for those who specifically wish to consider using
Excel for forecasting there is the Forecasting in Excel Course (1.5 days).
Please visit the main Training Page
for a summary of all our demand planning and forecasting training.
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