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 Forecasting Consultant - Demand Planning ConsultantForecast Solutions offers a wide range of consulting services for demand planning and sales forecasting, and we can help in all aspects of the development of a forecasting process. We are well versed in statistical forecasting, but intent on using understandable and practical forecasting methods where possible. The key areas in which we operate are itemised below, but please feel free to contact us for a no obligation discussion to explore the issues in your company and how we may be able to help with improvements. Email: enquiry@forecastsolutions.co.uk Price Sensitivity AnalysisIf a few years of historical sales data are available, together with the varying prices or relative prices that took place over time, it may be possible to quantify the sales effect of price changes. We carry out causal analysis to explore price relationships, together with any other important factors that may drive demand, such as the weather or economic indices. The results may add value in a forecasting process or help formulate a pricing strategy. Effect of weather on demandWeather has a major impact on sales in many businesses and is often an important factor behind the expected seasonal pattern. It is the effect of unseasonal variation in weather that often creates difficulty in accurate forecasting. Through careful data analysis we can unpick and quantify the effects on sales of normal seasonality, weather and other causal factors, together with time lags in the sales response that may apply. Training courses and workshopsA range of demand planning courses are carried out online or in classroom training. Content includes the principal sales forecasting methods, forecasting process and stock replenishment planning. Training is backed up with worked exercises in Microsoft Excel on some basic statistical forecasting techniques, leaving delegates with working templates on the most useful methods. Forecasting ProcessThere are some basic elements in setting up a forecasting process, such as the choice of time periods, time horizons and levels of detail for products / customers. Decisions are needed on forecasting methods to use, whether based on judgement or on statistical methods such as time series forecasting and/or causal modelling. A cycle of activities needs to be established including forecast accuracy measurement, statistical forecasting and the addition of commercial judgement regarding promotions and any other market intelligence. When there are alternative opinions regarding the forecast there is often a need for forecast reconciliation prior to publication. Forecast Accuracy MeasurementGood forecast accuracy is essential for stock management so that safety stock levels can be set as low as possible in order to achieve required customer service levels. Measurement of forecast accuracy helps in the investigation of existing supply chain problems or identification of potential new issues before they become serious. Also, if monitored regularly, it helps to ensure the forecasting process is under control. Forecasting SoftwareWe can advise on forecasting software. Excel is worth considering if the number of forecast entities is small and if there are special requirements, such as combining time series and causal methods, that make it difficult or too expensive to source other software. With large numbers of products or a need for multi-level forecasting, there is likely to be a strong case for specialist forecasting software. We have past experience of implementation and training with a number of software products, so are in a good position to help with the specification and selection of a suitable solution. Remote Forecasting ServiceForecasts can be created to provide an expert interpretation of difficult data, particularly if the calculation of seasonal patterns is problematical - we have a unique way of dealing with that. Alternatively, if internal resource is over-stretched or not available, we may be able to step in on a temporary basis to provide a regular forecasting service |