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Sales forecasting and forecast accuracyimprovement by UK based consultant |
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Sales Forecasting and Demand PlanningForecast Solutions works with FMCG, pharmaceutical, construction and industrial companies to improve demand forecasting and sales forecast accuracy. Both small and large projects are undertaken. In a sales forecasting improvement programme current sales forecasting processes and methods are examined to assess how successful they are in meeting current business objectives. Measurement of forecast accuracy is likely to be a key part of the investigation. Improvements are identified, prioritised and tested with a view to forming an implementation plan that may involve process, demand forecasting methods or forecasting software. Sales forecasting training courses and workshops are offered in order to improve understanding of basic forecasting approaches, such as causal / econometric modelling and time-series forecasting methods. Explanation is given of the commonly encountered methods, together with advice on situations where they are best used. Hopefully it will be possible to utilise existing sales forecasting software in the drive towards improved demand forecasting and forecast accuracy. However, there are times when a simple solution in Microsoft Excel may be useful, or help can be given with the specification and selection of specialist forecasting software. If internal resource is not available, Forecast Solutions can fill the gap by providing a remote sales forecast service. This provides a baseline statistical forecast that should then be reviewed and modified by those in the business with detailed commercial knowledge. Forecast Solutions services • Sales
forecasting
and forecast accuracy improvement Many sales forecasting systems, of course, rely on the simple concept of time series projection, thus analysing sales trends and seasonal patterns in the history and projecting into the future. Although these techniques make the sometimes dangerous assumption that current patterns will continue into the future, they may be the best alternative available. Both curve fitting and the commonly used exponential smoothing methods fall into this category. In sales forecasting the most effective methods may vary depending on the time horizon involved. In medium to long range forecasting, such as for sales and operations planning, it is important to reflect product life cycles and expected changes in the competitive and technological environment. On the other hand short term demand forecasting and planning is more to do with detailed tracking and management of short term demand in order to minimise inventory and maximise customer service.In all forecasting systems, forecast accuracy is paramount. Improved forecast accuracy in the short term sales forecast leads to lower stock levels, reduced operational costs and better customer service. Accurate medium term demand forecasting is essential for effective medium range business planning including sales and operations planning. • Forecast accuracy • Weather sensitivity • Causal econometric modelling • Short term sales forecasting and planning • Demand forecasting for sales and operations planning |
