Demand planning

Sales forecasting

Training and consulting

Sales Forecasting - Demand Forecasting
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Demand Planning and Sales Forecasting


Forecast Solutions provides training and consulting to FMCG, pharmaceutical, construction and industrial companies in order to help improve demand planning, sales forecasting and sales forecast accuracy. Both small and large projects are undertaken.

In a sales forecasting improvement programme current sales forecasting processes and methods are examined to assess how successful they are in meeting business objectives.  Measurement of current and potential forecast accuracy is key. Improvements may involve process, demand forecasting methods and techniques or forecasting software.

Sales forecasting and demand planning training courses and workshops are offered. Different approaches to forecasting are explored, including subjective methods, causal modelling and time-series projection.  Demand planning courses also include aspects of stock policy, collaborative forecasting and demand management.

Hopefully it will be possible to utilise existing sales forecasting software in the drive towards improved demand forecasting and forecast accuracy. However, there are times when a simple solution in Microsoft Excel may be useful, or expert help can be given with the specification and selection of specialist demand forecasting and planning software.

If internal resource is not available, Forecast Solutions can fill the gap by providing an expert remote sales forecasting service.  Specialist forecasting software is used to provide a baseline statistical forecast that may then be reviewed and modified by those in the business with detailed commercial knowledge.

Price sensitivity and weather sensitivity analysis
Econometric analysis / causal modeling
Consulting services

If demand is affected by external factors such as weather sensitivity, relative pricing or economic indicators, it may be an important first step to carry out a causal analysis. For example a price sensitivity analysis may help explain movements in market share. If it is suspected that sales are affected by unseasonal weather a  weather sensitivity analysis can often be very useful. For other companies, it may be possible to quantify the the effect on market size of key economic variables such as GDP, RPI or real disposable income through an econometric analysis .  

Many sales forecasting systems, of course, rely on the simple  forecasting methods of time series projection, thus analysing sales trends and seasonal patterns in the history and projecting into the future. Although these  forecast techniques make the sometimes dangerous assumption that current patterns will continue into the future, they may be the best alternative available. Both curve fitting and the commonly used exponential smoothing methods fall into this category.

The most effective sales forecasting techniques and methods may vary depending on the time horizon involved. In medium to long range forecasting, such as for sales and operations planning, it is important to reflect product life cycles and expected changes in the competitive and technological environment. On the other hand short term demand forecasting and planning is more to do with detailed tracking and management of short term demand in order to minimise inventory and maximise customer service.

In all demand forecasting systems, forecast accuracy is paramount. Improved forecast accuracy in the short term sales forecast leads to lower stock levels, reduced operational costs and better customer service.  Accurate medium term demand forecasting is essential for effective medium range business planning including sales and operations planning.





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